A Simulation Study on Impact of Climate Factors on Production and Requirements of Rice in Bangladesh


AbuBakr Siddique1*, Jun Furuya2, Shinataro Kobayashi2
,M Abdus Salam1 1-Agricultural
Economics Division, BRRI, Bangladesh 2-Development
Research Division, Japan International Research Center for Agricultural
Sciences   *Corresponding
author Email: abs_63@yahoo.com   Received: 20 June 2013  Accepted:12 November 2013     Abstract Bangladesh is a disaster prone developing
country, where people's staple food is rice. Numerous natural calamities visits
here round the year, and impeded the crusade of development. This study was
designed to evaluate the impact of
climate change on supply and demand, as well as predict the future scenario of
rice in Bangladesh. The findings of the study revealed that although,
production of local varieties in aus, aman
and boro season is decreasing
owing to lower yield and shrinking of planted area aggregated production of
rice is increasing due to higher production of modern varieties. As the total
rice production increases quantity of imports is decreased in one hand and on
the other hand, the bulk of stock is increased gradually. Higher level of per
capita income growth rate leads to the diversification of consumers' food
habit. Along with negative income elasticity of demand, decreased per capita
consumption of rice including other food items in dietary system. However,
total demand of rice will increase eventually as the population increasing.
The enumerated results of simulation based on past trend and performance of
data was very precise and reliable, and could be useful for future policy